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Great moments in punditry

Happy New Year. It’s always fun at the beginning of the year to try and predict what the coming year will bring. Here are a few predictions of what we think will happen in 2006.

  1. Web 2.0 will become officially misunderstood and overused as a term in the marketing community.
  2. Flash will become an application used primarily for video while Rich Internet Applications will favour Ajax methods for development.
  3. 1024×768 designs. 800×600 is dead. Let’s go big.
  4. Big fonts and headlines to go with higher resolutions.
  5. As technology continues to commoditize, value moves up the stack away from hardware and software. User experience and presentation become more important than ever.
  6. People have predicted that third screen apps are going to take off for almost 7 years. With no standards and closed systems it still doesn’t seem likely this year we will see huge breakthroughs. More sites will support mobile browsers including devices like PSPs in 2006 but wide spread adoption won’t happen until EVDO and 3G take hold. It is worth noting that Google and Yahoo! have just released some interesting apps.
  7. Google will release a travel search product and integrate Dodgeball into a good mobile app. But they will also stumble in 2006 releasing some products that make you say, so what, like Google Base and Google Reader.
  8. Apple will release a home media centre. However it will not have any ability to record television like TiVO. You will buy TV and movies from the iTunes Music Store on an à la carte basis. It will be more convenient than cable/satellite but it will be much more expensive.
  9. In-car systems will become hot towards the end of 2006. Satellite radio and iPod integration will allow for new content and functionality distribution to the car. However, the car industry will drag its feet, so getting factory installed systems will push into, at least, 2007.
  10. Online sales will continue to set records but new e-commerce players will not come from large offline retailers but from many small players. While cheap e-commerce enablement has been around for several years, 2006 will see more niche e-commerce sites like Etsy appearing.
Jon Lax More posts by Jon Lax